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Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered solid profitability and cash generation: revenue $305.4M, GAAP EPS $0.08, adjusted EPS $0.11, adjusted EBITDA $116.4M (38% margin); free cash flow of $16.1M marked a second consecutive positive quarter .
  • Sequential softness vs Q3 reflected lower Palmarejo volumes and higher consolidated per‑ounce costs, partially offset by Rochester’s step-up in output and first positive site FCF since 2019; management pointed to continued ramp benefits and price strength into 2025 .
  • 2025 outlook implies record production and FCF: Total guidance 380–440 koz Au and 16.7–20.25 Moz Ag; site CAS and capex frameworks provided; Q1 2025 expected negative FCF from one‑time cash taxes ($75–$85M), incentive and interest payments, property taxes, and transaction costs .
  • Strategic catalyst: SilverCrest deal closed Feb 14, 2025, adding Las Chispas (10.5 months in 2025 guidance) with ~$100M cash/bullion at close to accelerate deleveraging; management targets $75–$100M/qtr FCF from Q2’25 and revolver repayment by H2’25 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Rochester inflected: Q4 silver/gold production up 34%/63% QoQ to 1.6Moz/15,752 oz; site FCF turned positive at $12M, first since Q4’19, supported by 8.2Mt placed and ongoing ramp optimization .
    • Portfolio cash engine: Wharf posted a record FCF year ($94.7M) and Palmarejo delivered its best annual FCF in seven years ($107.5M), offsetting higher investment elsewhere .
    • Strategic consolidation: Closed SilverCrest acquisition adding high‑grade, low‑cost Las Chispas; 2025 guide embeds 42.5–52.5 koz Au and 4.25–5.25 Moz Ag from Las Chispas to drive record production/EBITDA/FCF and faster deleveraging .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Sequential revenue/margin downtick: Revenue slipped to $305.4M from $313.5M and adj. EBITDA margin to 38% from 40%, as Palmarejo volumes eased and consolidated per‑ounce costs rose QoQ .
    • Palmarejo unit cost pressure: Adjusted CAS per Au/Ag oz rose QoQ to $894/$15.92 on lower metal sales, despite strong recoveries; site FCF declined to $23.3M from $47.6M .
    • Kensington/seasonality headwinds: Kensington swung to $(10.4)M FCF; guidance implies higher 2025 CAS ($1,700–$1,900/oz), and Q1 2025 across the portfolio expected negative FCF on sizable tax/interest/property tax/transaction outflows .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)$262.1 $222.0 $313.5 $305.4
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)($0.07) $0.00 $0.12 $0.08
Adjusted EPS ($)($0.02) ($0.01) $0.12 $0.11
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$64.3 $52.4 $126.0 $116.4
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)25% 24% 40% 38%
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$65.3 $15.2 $111.1 $63.8
Free Cash Flow ($M)($27.4) ($36.2) $69.1 $16.1
Production & PriceQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Gold Produced (oz)101,609 78,696 94,993 87,149
Silver Produced (Moz)3.1 2.6 3.0 3.2
Avg Realized Gold ($/oz)$1,886 $2,003 $2,309 $2,399
Avg Realized Silver ($/oz)$24.79 $26.20 $29.86 $31.11
Adj CAS per AuOz ($/oz)$1,225 $1,264 $1,113 $1,192
Adj CAS per AgOz ($/oz)$17.03 $17.71 $15.67 $16.93

Segment breakdown (revenue and site FCF):

SiteQ3 2024 Metal Sales ($M)Q4 2024 Metal Sales ($M)Q3 2024 Site FCF ($M)Q4 2024 Site FCF ($M)
Palmarejo$110.4 $89.1 $47.6 $23.3
Rochester$56.0 $87.2 ($6.9) $12.1
Kensington$62.2 $68.3 $18.1 ($10.4)
Wharf$85.0 $60.7 $48.8 $19.3

Estimates vs. actuals:

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue) were unavailable at request time due to a data access limit; therefore, we cannot formally assess beat/miss vs. consensus at this time. Management emphasized sequential strength at Rochester and a constructive 2025 setup, while acknowledging Q1 2025 one-time outflows .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Production (Gold)FY 2025N/A380,000–440,000 oz New
Total Production (Silver)FY 2025N/A16.7–20.25 Moz New
Palmarejo ProductionFY 2025N/A95–105 koz Au; 5.4–6.5 Moz Ag New
Rochester ProductionFY 2025N/A60–75 koz Au; 7.0–8.3 Moz Ag New
Kensington ProductionFY 2025N/A92.5–107.5 koz Au New
Wharf ProductionFY 2025N/A90–100 koz Au; 50–200 koz Ag New
Las Chispas ProductionFY 2025N/A42.5–52.5 koz Au; 4.25–5.25 Moz Ag New
CAS – PalmarejoFY 2025N/A$950–$1,150/oz Au; $17.00–$18.00/oz Ag New
CAS – RochesterFY 2025N/A$1,250–$1,450/oz Au; $14.50–$16.50/oz Ag New
CAS – KensingtonFY 2025N/A$1,700–$1,900/oz Au New
CAS – WharfFY 2025N/A$1,250–$1,350/oz Au New
CAS – Las ChispasFY 2025N/A$850–$950/oz Au; $9.25–$10.25/oz Ag New
Sustaining CapexFY 2025N/A$132–$156M New
Development CapexFY 2025N/A$55–$69M New
Exploration – ExpensedFY 2025N/A$67–$77M New
Exploration – CapitalizedFY 2025N/A$10–$16M New
G&AFY 2025N/A$44–$48M New
Q1 2025 Cash Taxes (one-time)Q1 2025N/A$75–$85M New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q3 2024 (Q-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Rochester ramp & PSD optimizationRamp completed; ~90ktpd; focus on 0.625" PSD in H2 On-track; ~75% hitting 5/8" late Q3; H2 optimize mode 8.2Mt placed; direct-to-pad used during downtime; recoveries tracking; 70–80% PSD progress; winter leach kinetics manageable Improving throughput/PSD; rising silver/gold output
Free cash flow & deleveragingPreparing for H2 inflection; target net debt/EBITDA=0 longer term FCFF inflection in Q3; paid down revolver; net leverage <2x Expect $75–$100M/qtr FCF from Q2’25; repay revolver by H2’25 Accelerating deleveraging in 2025
SilverCrest / Las ChispasN/AAnnounced acquisition; targeted late Q1’25 close Closed Feb 14; ~10.5 months in 2025 guide; ~$100M cash/bullion at close Integration + accretive FCF driver
Palmarejo exploration (outside stream)Fresnillo concessions acquired; plan to validate/drill Continued mapping/drilling; outside stream focus 2025: ~60% of exploration outside stream; resource growth focus Resource pipeline expansion
Kensington life extension & costsMulti-year dev/drill program >80% complete; 2025 FCF inflection targeted Strong Q3 FCF; reserve life >5 years targeted 5-year P&P reserve life achieved; higher 2025 CAS acknowledged Longer life; watch unit costs
Wharf mine life & FCFDrilling Juno/North Foley to extend life Record Q3 FCF $49M; mine life extension targets advancing Record 2024 FCF $94.7M; 2025 drilling continues Durable cash engine; extension under way

Management Commentary

  • “We finished 2024 with a second consecutive quarter of strong earnings and positive free cash flow… we anticipate delivering sharp increases in production, EBITDA and free cash flow, which will allow us to continue aggressively deleveraging the balance sheet.” — CEO Mitch Krebs .
  • “Rochester’s… production increased by 34% and 63% QoQ… Tons placed… 8.2 million, exceeding the 7.0–8.0 million target… Fourth quarter free cash flow of $12 million…” .
  • “Using a $2,700 gold price and a $30 silver price, we expect to average $75M–$100M per quarter of free cash flow beginning in Q2 2025… we expect our revolver balance… will be repaid by the second half of 2025.” — CFO Tom Whelan .

Q&A Highlights

  • Las Chispas cash/bullion: Balance “closer to $100M” at close after bills; Q1 to be “messy” with ~“$40M for each of the two subsidiaries” in taxes; emphasis on quick deleveraging .
  • Rochester PSD/direct-to-pad: Q4 used ~3Mt of higher‑grade direct‑to‑pad to offset crusher downtime; crusher has demonstrated ability to deliver 5/8" with proper ore blend; direct‑to‑pad profitable but slightly impacts recoveries; permits cap crusher at 32Mtpa .
  • Kensington costs: Higher site costs tied to elevated activity in multi‑year program and grade sensitivity; targeting improved grade/FCF in 2025 .
  • Seasonality/leach kinetics: Rochester back-half weighted as silver leach curves and winter operating conditions extend kinetics; momentum builds through the year .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global quarterly consensus (EPS, revenue) was unavailable at request time due to data access limits; formal beat/miss cannot be assessed. Given actual Q4 revenue ($305.4M) and adjusted EBITDA ($116.4M, 38% margin), plus site FCF trends, estimate revisions may bias upward for 2025 EBITDA/FCF on Las Chispas integration and Rochester run‑rate, while Q1 2025 cash tax/one‑time outflows could temper near‑term quarterly EPS/FCF prints .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • 2025 is set up for record volumes and cash generation, with Las Chispas + Rochester driving 20% Au and 62% Ag YoY production growth at midpoints; portfolio mix skews more silver, enhancing leverage to silver prices .
  • Deleveraging is a central catalyst: management targets $75–$100M/qtr FCF from Q2’25 and revolver repayment by H2’25, positioning for a stronger balance sheet and potential capital return optionality thereafter .
  • Watch Q1 2025 “noise”: negative FCF likely on $75–$85M cash taxes and other seasonally/timing‑related outflows; underlying run‑rate should inflect sharply thereafter .
  • Rochester execution remains critical: sustaining 7–8Mt/quarter placement and reaching stable 5/8" PSD mix should unlock higher recoveries and lower unit costs across 2025 .
  • Palmarejo/Wharf underpin medium‑term mine life: accelerated exploration outside the stream at Palmarejo (~60% of 2025 spend) and Wharf’s Juno/North Foley infill support durable, lower‑capex ounces .
  • Kensington offers torque to grade: with 5‑year P&P reserve life achieved, higher‑grade panels are key to moderating CAS and delivering the targeted FCF improvement in 2025 .

Why the Quarter Looked Like This

  • Sequential declines vs Q3 were driven by lower Palmarejo sales and higher consolidated per‑ounce CAS, partly offset by stronger Rochester output/FCF and higher realized metal prices; management explicitly tied CAS increases to mix and timing effects while highlighting Rochester’s ramp progress and free cash flow inflection .
  • The setup into 2025 is materially stronger due to: (1) Las Chispas contribution; (2) Rochester’s first full post‑expansion year; (3) robust precious metals price environment; and (4) exploration‑led pipeline growth across assets, supporting management’s “record results” framing .

Additional references

  • Q4 2024 8‑K and press release with full financials and site details .
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript for outlook/deleveraging specifics –.
  • Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 press releases and call transcripts – – – –.
  • SilverCrest closing press release (Feb 14, 2025) and 2024 year‑end reserves/resources update (Feb 18, 2025) for strategic and resource context .